I airballed a three pretty badly last night. Turns out jet lag and not properly stretching your legs after a 14.5 hour flight aren’t great for competitive basketball. But hey, I’m back in New York and finally getting a chance to plan my 2025 (by plan, I mean relentlessly pump out content for my course and the TikTok ban).

Here’s yet another TikTokTake before our beloved platform goes down, covering

• Why YouTube could win the TikTok Ban

• Why Instagram is the obvious choice, but not perfect

• Why it’s not going to be Rednote, goodness gracious, do I actually have to say that?

—Jack Appleby

Why YouTube could win the TikTok Ban

Where, oh where will the TikTokers go? Oh where, oh where can they be?

It’s the golden (or red?) question right now, and it’s actually a two-parter:

• Where will the TikTok Creators go?

• Where will the TikTok Scrollers go?

Don’t get me wrong, there’s an obvious frontrunner here, and it’s in Zuck’s portfolio. Buttt if YouTube plays this right? They could swallow up the 63% of American Teens and 59% of American adults under 30 who use TikTok.

Are we sure TikTok is a social network?

I’ve always thought we’ve widened our definition of social networks a little too far. There should really be two categories: social networks, and social-adjacent. The key difference? I consider a social network any place where people both create and consume content, whereas social-adjacent platforms are still content-based, but the general public mostly consumes without creating.

I’m willing to bet you’ve never made a TikTok under your own name, and neither have your closest friends. Check this stat from Pew Research: 98% of American TikTok content is produced by the most active 25% of TikTokers.

I’d bet you’ve never made a TikTok, and neither have your closest friends. You’re there because the For You Page is the best algorithm in the world at suggested content you might like. You’re there to be entertained! You’re there to mindless scroll, occasionally comment, and incessantly share content with eachother—but not to make any content.

That means the TikTok Ban creates a void in how Americans are entertained, not how they social network. Whoever wants to win wandering TikTok traffic should be positioned as the most entertaining, and I’d argue that’s not the frontrunner’s value prop.

Let’s be honest: Instagram’s the obvious bet

Statistically speaking, I’d almost guarantee that every TikTok Creator and TikTok Scroller also has Instagram on their phones. IG has 143.2 million active users in the US—that’s 41.9% of the US Population.

If TikTok just goes blank, the easiest consumer action will be to thumb over to Instagram. Hell, it’s probably sitting right next to the TikTok icon on their phones. It’s a platform they’re plenty familiar with, that has plenty of creator content. I fully expect Instagram usage to skyrocket the second TikTok goes down, especially because most TikTok creators also distribute the same content on Instagram.

But remember Make Instagram Instagram Again? We culturally still consider Instagram to be a social network to catch up with friends (even though all the data shows we actually enjoy creator content more than our frenemy’s baby pics). Instagram has to balance friend content with creator content thanks to its original promise.

Many don’t believe Instagram’s recommended content algorithm is right, either. TikTok’s For You Page almost always delivers, showing us all the content we’ve casually told the algorithm you want. Meanwhile, Reels still feels hit and miss, especially if you want specific niches as your primary content.

That leaves an opening for a social-adjacent entertainment platform to win, and there’s a giant ready.

And it’s not Rednote. Don’t be ridiculous.

Yeahyeahyeah, we’ve all seen Rednote become the most downloaded apps in America this week. Some reports say they earned 700,000 new users. But have you opened Rednote?

THE APP IS PRIMARILY IN MANDARIN.

Be so serious here. The TikTok Creators & scrollers flocking to Rednote are posing either a wildly creative or ridiculously dumb protest. It certainly shows that people are both frustrated with the ban and looking for their new entertainment platform, but Rednote is not gonna be a thing for Americans.

While parts of the platform appear like TikTok, Rednote is also designed to be a Chinese Yelp or Google alternative for local business recommendations. We’re not locals. What’s more, the app is now suspending many of the new American Users, some without reason (or with reasons that users can’t read—because they’re written in Mandarin).

Also, uh, guys. That app’s bound to get banned here, too.

If I see one Social Media Manager start exploring Rednote while also tweeting that they’re overworked every day, I might scream.

Enter YouTube: the best TikTok replacement

So millions of Americans need to move their scrolling hours to a platform that primarily pushes creator-made content, with an algorithm that quickly learns their preferences, that’ll keep them engaged the same was a a streaming service.

Yeah, that’s YouTube. It’s become my favorite platform over the last few years, not only stealing my time from social networks, but from streaming services as well. I trust YouTube’s algorithm to fill my homescreen with content I’ll enjoy, much more so that Netflix, Max, or Hulu, if only because YouTube has exponentially more content!

It’s already the second most visited website in the entire world. It’s preloaded on most phones. Every single person who’s watched a TikTok has watched a YouTube video.

YouTube Shorts, their short-form content, feels culturally similar to the TikTok feed—mostly creators, mostly candid. I don’t find their Shorts algorithm nails my preferences as much as their home page algorithm, but I’m hoping that’s mostly because it’s still a new feed—Shorts is only 4 years old, and only increased their video length to 3 minutes in the last few months.

The YouTube curiosity is high for short-form creators right now. The feeling? A lot of Meta distaste, a lot of interest in making long-form, and a lot of early success by placing their most seen TikToks on YouTube Shorts. I spoke with Sidney Raz last week at the 1 Billion Follower Summit—you probably know him as the “here’s something I wish I knew before I was in my 30s” guy—he said he’s got 5 months of old TikToks scheduled to go up daily on his new YouTube. I tried the same thing with my basketball account, How To Hoop Forever. Even with just 1k YouTube subs, dropping my most-viewed TikTok of all-time on YouTube Shots generated 4.2 million views—that’s double my TikTok views on the same video, even though I basically had no followers yet!

But Youtube does tend to be a more intentional experience. You don’t open the app and immediately get content yelling at you—you get options as to what you should watch, more similar to the Netflix homescreen. Requiring that one extra thumb tap really increase the intentionality required to enjoy YouTube. I’m not suggesting YouTube change to force a content play at app launch, but it does mean training former TikTok scrollers who are used to mindless scrolling. Instagram’s got them beat there.

If I was Youtube, I’d spend big money right now on both YouTube Shorts product development and every kind of advertising for YouTube Shorts. Absolutely blitz billboards, TV ads, and creator campaigns with content that positions them as the most entertaining platform ready to welcome TikTok creators and scrollers. They have a chance to become a powerful all-in-one content space, servicing those looking for TV-length videos and short-form scrolling.

I can tell you that’s where I’m putting my hours.

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